Big West Conference Tourney: Prepare Yourselves

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IT'S BIG WEST TOURNEY TIME! To the left is the Men's bracket and to the right, is the Women's bracket.  And once again, we see my poor photoshop skills come into play...

Follow me after the jump as I break down each matchup, give a predicted winner and possibly make a bold prediction.






Men's Tourney:

All games at the Honda Center
 Game No. 1: Pacific vs UCSB

• Overall records: UCSB 18-9, Pacific 11-18
  
• Season Record: UCSB won 2-0
• RPIs: UCSB-127, Pacific-289

On record, this looks to be a hands down UCSB win.  However in the first matchup between these two teams, Pacific lost by 3, and had continually been making life difficult for the top 3 teams, losing to Fullerton by 1 and LBSU by 8 in their final matchups against the other two top teams.  Pacific's Ross Rivera will be the X-factor to this game, if the Big West's Sixth Man of the Year does well, the Gauchos will have a hard time putting the Tigers away.

Final score prediction: UCSB by a hair 65-63

Game No. 2: UCI vs CSU Fullerton

• Overall Records:  UCI 11-18, CSU Fullerton 21-8
• Season Record: CSU Fullerton won 2-0
• RPIs: CSU Fullerton-147, UCI-278

Once again, another case that should be an easy Titan win.  I won't disagree either, Fullerton beat a very good 49ers team the last game of regular season, why the Anteaters lost an OT heartbreaker at UCR.  For UCI to have a chance, forward Michael Wilder must have at least 4 3FG (he averages 2.4/game).  The two games between these two teams were high scoring affairs, so for UCI to have a chance, they must score 70 points or more as a team to even keep it close, otherwise this game will get ugly.

Final score prediction: Titans dominate 86-66

Game No 3: UCD vs LBSU

• Overall Records: LBSU 22-8, UCD 5-25
• Season Record: LBSU won 2-0
• RPIs: LBSU-35, UCD-339

Honestly, I can't remember when the last time a lowest seed beat a highest seed in the first round of a tournament (that being said, I'm pulling for my undergrad school Boise State to pull one over SDSU in this weeks MWC tourney...though I know it won't happen.), and this game shouldn't even be close.  Davis, in essence, has to make the furthest drive to Anaheim, to play a team that should be considered being ranked (and probably also infuriated that they lost their final conference game, which spotted their spotless conference record), and also has to now win the tournament to be a lock for the Big Dance because of the loss in their final game.  I'm not going to say the Aggies don't have a chance, because it is March and Madness exists (especially after watching them shock Fullerton in a huge upset win), but I don't see how this game will be competitive, especially since the Aggies suffered one of the worst losses in the history of their program.

Final score prediction: 82-60 Long Beach St. wins safely

Game No. 4: UCR vs Cal Poly

• Overall Records: Cal Poly 17-14, UCR 14-16
• Season Record: Series split at 1-1
• RPIs: Cal Poly-229, UCR-251

This game is essentially a tossup: while on paper, Cal Poly is better in PPG (65.9 to 59.8), giving up PPG (push at 63.3 vs 63.4) and a better record; when these two teams played over the season, it was a close win both times.  I would say the X-factor here is UCR's All-Conference Player Phil Martin.  He averages 17.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG and holds the UCR record for minutes played (1024).  If Martin can reach 20 points in this game, and UCR's defense can hold Cal Poly to under 60 points, the Highlanders will win this game.  If not, Cal Poly will move to the semi-final.

Final score prediction: 62-61 UCR wins in a thriller

Game 5 prediction: UCSB vs CSU Fullerton

• Prediction: Titans win 74-68

Game 6 prediction: UCR vs LBSU

• Prediction: 49ers win handily 80-69

Game 7 prediction: CSU Fullerton vs LBSU

• UPSET ALERT: Titans will win 82-79
• While this is definitely a stretch of a prediction, my feeling is that even if the 49ers lose this match, their RPI will be high enough to give them an at-large bid.
• That being said, this was a very difficult match to predict because of environmental intangibles, mainly the fact that both these teams will bring their fans and this is an intense rivalry.

 Women's Tourney
Note: The quarterfinal rounds of the tournament are at the school location of the higher seeds.  The semi-finals and final will be at the Honda Center.

Game No. 1: CSU Fullerton vs Cal Poly

• Overall records: Cal Poly 16-13, CSU Fullerton 11-18
  
• Season Record: Cal Poly won 2-0
• RPIs: Cal Poly-147, CSU Fullerton-286

 The Titans have a couple things going against them here: first, as I've said above, the quarterfinals are played on the home court of the higher seed.  The second, Big West Conference Player of the Year Kristina Santiago awaits them.  In order for Fullerton to have a chance of winning, their own All-Conference First Team player Megan Richardson needs to have a monster game: we're talking about career high point/rebound game.  It's interesting to note that despite Fullerton's record, they are actually +0.3 points in scoring on the season.

Final Score prediction: Cal Poly 67, CSU Fullerton 59

Game No. 2: Pacific vs UCD

• Overall records: UCD 17-11, Pacific 16-12
  
• Season Record: UCD won 2-0
• RPIs: UCD-129, Pacific-133

Rarely do you see the numbers 4 and 5 seeds have a higher RPI than the number 1 seed, but at times, the Aggies and the Tigers have both looked a lot better than Cal Poly this year.  This was emphasized, at least for UCD, when the Aggies beat the Mustangs recently.  As a game, this is another difficult one to predict.  Based on records and trends though, I have to say that UCD will win this one in a close game.  That being said, I firmly believe that either one of these teams can beat the next team in the semi-final.

 Final Score prediction: UCD 65, Pacific 61

Game No. 3: LBSU vs CSU Northridge

• Overall records: CSU Northridge 17-12, LBSU 12-17
  
• Season Record: Split at 1-1
• RPIs: CSU Northridge-163, LBSU-260

This is another tossup despite the record.   CSU Northridge has the advantage because they have looked cleaner throughout the season, but that double overtime thriller where the 49ers pulled out the victory at Northridge, begs that another upset could be in play.  For this to happen, LBSU must keep the Matadors under 60 points.  "But wasn't that 2OT game's final score 75-72?" Yes, it was, however at the end of regulation, it was tied at 56.  When the Matadors were held under 56 points, they were 2-2 on the season.  I don't foresee this happening though...

Final Score prediction: Matadors 68, 49ers 64

Game No. 4: UCSB vs UCI

• Overall records: UCSB 14-15, UCI 13-16
• Season Record: UCI won 2-0
• RPIs: UCI-223, UCSB-187

This game poses one of the great philosophical analogies: If a 6 seed beats a 3 seed in a tournament despite having a better overall record, is it still considered an upset?  UCSB has survived this year on defense, only averaging 52.8 PPG as a team.  First-team All-Conference Player Kassandra McCalister for UCI has almost averaged one-third of that amount, racking up 15.9 PPG and shooting 40.3% from beyond the arc.  This is going to be a close matchup, however if UCSB wants to win this game, they have to keep UCI under 60 points as the Anteaters have only won 2 games this season when scoring 60 or less.

Final Score prediction: UPSET ALERT: UCSB 59, UCI 55 (though McCalister will score her 16 points)

Game 5 prediction: UCD vs Cal Poly

• UPSET ALERT: UCD 65, Cal Poly 61

Game 6 prediction: CSU Northridge vs UCSB

• UPSET ALERT: UCSB 61, CSU Northridge 57 (based on regular season matchups)

Game 7 prediction: UCSB vs UCD

• UCD 59, UCSB 57 (once again based on regular season matchups)

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