Nothing but Hypotheticals: If Boise State joins as 11th member, who becomes the 12th?

In our complete theoretical speculation of what the hell will happen with conference realignment, we here at the Big West Confidential know two things: 1.  BSU really wants in if the WAC dies, 2. The Big West isn't sure if they really want to expand (they're looking at it, but if the opportunity is not right, they will not accept BSU).  So lets assume that Big West feels it's worth bringing in the Broncos, who do they look at or take as a 12th member?

We have a whole slew of teams available but geographically speaking, the Big West would only be interested in about 4.  Note: there is no rumors swirling around, this is slightly more than a bunch of bullshit possibilities that I made up.

Fresno State: Let's start with the obvious of obvious, the Bulldogs of Fresno State.  This would be the most ideal team for Boise State and SDSU to drag into a "West Coast Partner" for the Big East.  Let's forget for one second that they've been okay at best the last five years in football, and look at the potentials.

1. Fresno State is right in the ideal geographical region for the Big West.
2. They hold natural rivalries with SDSU, Boise State and Hawaii.
3. They are in the "north" area of the conference.
4. They would be the sole representative of the San Joaquin Valley.
5. Their baseball would be extremely competitive with the conference, as would their basketball.

Isn't that sound just wonderful? Here's the problem, the Big East is not looking at Fresno State, as we've seen from their addition of Memphis (a horrible football school, only added for their basketball).  You can bet if there is a push to get more west teams, and BYU turns down the rumors that they'll join (as well as Air Force, who I think will stay loyal to the MWC), Fresno State will be another meaningful option.

Odds of this happening (fake statistical bullshit for the common observer): 5-15%

Nevada: This one's a little more difficult than Fresno State, however it still would be doable.  Looking at the football trends over the past five years, the Wolfpack are on the up and the Bulldogs are in Limbo, making Nevada more ideal than Fresno State to move to the Big East.  Nevada's location in Reno make them rivals with Boise State (which has been fierce as of late) and UC Davis (2 and a half hour drive).  Nevada's basketball has been in a bit of a rough patch the last couple years after dominating the WAC, and their baseball is decent, not great.  While their other Olympic sports would have a home, rifle and swimming & diving would have to find a new home.

Odds of this happening: 5-10%

UNLV: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...oh wait, you're serious? Alright fine, UNLV would be the total dick move of them all.  First of all, they won't get invited by the Big East unless all sports go (and if the Las Vegas Bowl gets a tie-in as well).  Secondly, lets say their football program gets dropped because you know, of fan disinterest.  The Mountain West would fight tooth and nail to keep them, and even then, there's no clue that the Big West would want them.  This is a team, who has a proud history winning a National Title with the Big West, so why wouldn't they want them back? Mostly because the basketball team would utterly dominate the sport (again) with very little resistance (except from the Aztecs).  Also, this adds another team in the southern part of the conference, and they are actually fairly far from other teams in that area, the closest being UCR at 3 in a half hours (believe me, I've checked!).  Their baseball is decent, but would not be dominant at all, and would be a middle of the road BWC team.  Plus, I have a feeling now that they've gotten Reno back from the WAC, those two schools will be packaged.  So, while not far from any stretch of the mind, adding UNLV would be a near zero probability.

Odds of this happening: 0-π%

Sacramento State: Okay, I'm just pulling things out of  my ass now, right?  Actually...I'm not.  Think about this, the Hornets men's soccer team is already a part of the BWC starting July 1st.  The WAC is about to die leaving baseball with no home (the Big Sky doesn't sponsor baseball).  The Big Sky will start sponsoring softball later this year, giving a quick opportunity for the Hornets to change their mind and join the Big West.  If Sacramento State really wanted to, they could defect their Olympic sports to the BWC while keeping football in the Big Sky (like UCD and Cal Poly).  The Hornets' arch-rival is the Aggies, which even has a name: The Causeway Classic (as the football game is called) and it provides a source of school spirit as provided from an article written a couple years back.  While this would provide more of an ideal opportunity (as like with Fresno State), I really don't see it happening unless Sac State decides to pull a Cartman at the Big Sky meetings ("Screw you guys, I'm going that way!")

Odds of this happening: Carry the Hamiltonian in your time-dependent Schrodinger equation and you have a quantum probability somewhere between zero or one.  No one really knows for sure...