Good morning all!
Since I know next to nothing about water polo, except that the Big West is fairly good at it, I asked for help in breaking down the conference tournament this weekend and our chances at the NCAA tournament. Jeremy Mauss from The Skip Shot gave this awesome in-depth analysis for your enjoyable reading. Once again, if you haven't done so, you should check out The Skip Shot at some point as well as his other blog (which I write for occasionally), Mountain West Connection where he and others provide an excellent source of MWC info and analysis. So for your entertainment, here's Jeremy:
The 2012 Big West women's conference tournament is set for April 27 - 29
on the campus of UC Davis. The top seed in the tournament is UC Irvine
who finished with a perfect 5-0 in league play and they are looking to
secure the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Currently Irvine is
ranked No. 6 in the latest top 25 poll and they are the highest ranked
non-MPSF team.
Based on record Irvine is the favorite to win the Big West
tournament, but their path will not be easy. First off, the tournament
is played at home of No. 2 seeded UC Davis where Davis has gone 9-0 at
home included upset wins over four ranked teams including Maryland and
San Jose State who have been ranked in the top-10 this season. Currently
Davis is ranked No. 11 but that should change since their win over San
Jose State was this past Saturday and they were ranked No. 8.
Irvine and Davis have played only once this year and Irvine easily
won 10-4, but that was at Irvine, and If the final matchup is between
Davis and Irvine home pool advantage could be the equalizer.
First,
Irvine needs to get to the finals. By winning the regular season title
they and Davis earn a bye to the semifinals and will play the winner
between of Long Beach State or Cal State Northridge. Neither of those
games will be easy since Irvine only defeated Cal State Northridge 11-10
and Long Beach State they played twice and won 9-4 and 8-5, so the path
to the title game will not be easy. As for Davis, they are in the same
scenario as they beat Pacific twice but the two games are a 8-7 and 11-9
victories and a 9-8 win over Santa Barbara.
Really every team has a shot to make it to the NCAA championship
since the bracket is set up with tough matchups for the top two seeds.
However, look for the final to be between Davis and Irvine, and as for a
predicted winner gotta go with Irvine based off of the recent 10-4 over
Davis.
As for the NCAA tournament projections, look for Irvine to be the
No. 4 or No. 5 seed behind all of the MPSF teams who qualify and
possibly Loyola Marymount who Irvine split the two games this year. If
Davis is to win they more than likely will be the No. 5 seed with a
small chance to be the No. 6 seed, it just depends how well Michigan
does at the CWPA Eastern championships.
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I linked to it in last Friday's links, but in case you missed it: here's his story link and information about the upcoming tournament this weekend.
Once again, thanks to Jeremy for all his help.
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